The Great Plundering Can Begin
Will the United States, under Donald Trump’s leadership, lean toward an authoritarian capitalism similar to China’s model? His protectionist ideology, inspired by a forgotten and assassinated president, can be summarized in four words: “We are America, bitch.”
The U.S. Economy Under Trump in 2029
By January 1, 2029, the United States feels emptier. Contrary to analysts’ predictions that President Trump would scale back his rhetoric, he has kept his promises. Eleven million undocumented immigrants have been deported during his second term. This has significantly impacted a total workforce of 160 million people. Yet, the economy thrives: the oil sector operates without restrictions, and Wall Street enjoys freedom from stringent financial regulations. The result? Businesses are flooded with cheap energy and loans.
Import tariffs—60% on Chinese products and 10-20% on others—have further revitalized America’s declining industries. Store shelves are now filled with goods Made in America. The cherry on top? Income tax has been abolished. Hardworking Americans no longer fund their government directly—foreigners do, thanks to protectionist tariffs.
It’s a vision Trump outlined in a rally in Arizona before his sweeping victory in the fall of 2024:
“We’ll ensure low taxes, minimal regulations, cheap energy, low interest rates, and low inflation so that everyone can afford groceries, a car, and a beautiful home.”
This Trumpian utopia—a fantasy, of course—raises questions. What is the essence of his economic worldview? For many supporters, the answer is simple: it’s not an ideology but common sense. That term appears 12 times in the Republican Party’s brief election manifesto. Despite low unemployment and a booming economy under President Joe Biden, the document paints a grim picture: “For decades, politicians sold our jobs and livelihoods to the highest overseas bidders with unfair trade deals and blind faith in globalism’s siren song.”
Now, with the presidency, Senate, and House under Republican control, Trump’s team declares: “America will once again be the richest, most powerful nation, built on Truth, Justice, and Common Sense.”
The Return of Protectionism
While Trump’s supporters see this as pragmatic, critics argue otherwise. Antonio Gramsci observed that every dominant societal view cloaks itself as apolitical common sense. Trump’s economic preferences are anything but neutral. Commentators dissect his policies—dubbed “Trumponomics” or “Maganomics”—to uncover their essence.
From the start in 2016, Trump’s economic strategy was dual-faced. Domestically, he embraced neoliberalism: tax cuts (mostly benefiting elites), deregulation, and endless tweets lauding stock market growth as a success metric. Internationally, Trump adopted economic nationalism, with China bearing the brunt, followed by Europe through higher tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Trump’s second term shifts gears. His administration promises even more tax cuts for U.S.-based manufacturers and slashes government spending, aiming to save $2 trillion, led by Elon Musk and former candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Yet, tensions simmer as sectors like construction and hospitality face labor shortages, exacerbated by mass deportations and tariffs.
Echoes of Mercantilism
Trump’s vision of the economy mirrors mercantilism—a nationalist economic ideology dominant between 1600 and 1800. In this zero-sum view, wealth is finite, and nations must outcompete others to secure it. Protectionist tariffs serve as tools for economic supremacy.
Critics, including 16 Nobel laureates and Moody’s Analytics, predict rising inflation and a potential recession by mid-2025. Nevertheless, Trump dismisses these concerns, citing “common sense.”
The Bigger Picture: Toward Authoritarian Capitalism?
Trump’s policies, reminiscent of mercantilism and protectionism, contrast sharply with the Washington Consensus of the 1990s, which advocated liberal economic policies. Instead, his vision seems closer to the Beijing Consensus, emphasizing state-led capitalism and undermining democratic norms.
Analysts warn of the long-term costs. Studies show that populist and authoritarian leaders rarely deliver sustained economic growth, often prioritizing personal enrichment and political power over national prosperity.
In Trump’s America, protectionism isn’t merely policy—it’s an ideology cloaked in common sense, where the international economy is viewed as a battlefield rather than a collaborative space. As Trump declared in 1990: “I’d impose a tax on every Mercedes-Benz and Japanese product entering the U.S.” Decades later, that vision has taken center stage.
Original piece written in Dutch by Koen Haegens.