Who will secure top European positions? One week after the European elections, 27 heads of state and government leaders will meet tonight in Brussels to discuss this question.
Over dinner, they will decide who will fill the key positions and thus have the most influence on the EU’s direction for the next five years. Decisions on these positions are expected to be made in about ten days at the next summit.
Brussels rumor mill
For months, various names have been speculated behind the scenes about potential candidates. This opaque backstage process resembles a Brussels rumor mill, where names are dropped to gauge reactions.
EU leaders are deciding on four positions: President of the European Commission, President of the European Council (who leads the summits of government leaders), the new EU foreign affairs chief, and the President of the European Parliament. Political preferences play a crucial role in these appointments, but geographic distribution and gender balance are also important.
The Christian Democrats strengthened their position as the largest faction in last week’s European Parliament elections. This increases the chances that Ursula von der Leyen, the German President of the European Commission, will secure a second term.
The Christian Democrats are also likely to initially provide the President of the European Parliament. Currently, Roberta Metsola from Malta holds this position, and she is expected to remain.
The Social Democrats, the second-largest party in Parliament, will provide the President of the European Council. Antonio Costa, the former Prime Minister of Portugal, is a long-rumored candidate for this role. Costa resigned last year due to a corruption scandal, but was later cleared by an investigation, and Portugal is now putting him forward as their candidate.
Candidates in the running
Ursula von der Leyen from Germany: current and potential future President of the European Commission.
Roberta Metsola from Malta: current President of the European Parliament.
Kaja Kallas, the Estonian Prime Minister: in the running to become the EU foreign affairs chief.
Antonio Costa, former Prime Minister of Portugal: potential President of the European Council.
Estonian liberal Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is a contender to become the new “high representative,” responsible for EU foreign policy. Kallas, a hardliner on Russia, has strong support from Eastern EU countries warning against naivety towards Putin. Kallas was also previously mentioned as a candidate for NATO chief.
Mark Rutte’s potential last summit?
Mark Rutte, a strong candidate for the NATO chief position, may be attending his last EU summit for the Netherlands. This depends on whether the new Dutch cabinet is sworn in before the next EU summit on June 27. If so, Rutte’s successor, Schoof, will attend.
Discussions tonight will also likely address Rutte’s NATO candidacy, which is not yet approved by Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia.
“Total package” approach
EU leaders aim to finalize a comprehensive package for all these roles due to the current geopolitical situation. With the war in Ukraine and the upcoming US presidential elections, timely decisions are crucial.
The goal is to have everything settled by the next summit on June 27-28, though it could be finalized sooner. French President Macron mentioned that this might be possible in the coming days.
The European formation process
Heads of state and government leaders will nominate a new President for the European Commission, who must be approved by a majority of the new European Parliament through a secret vote, expected in July or September.
Once the new President is appointed, they will form a new European Commission with 27 members, one from each member state. Governments nominate candidates for the position of European Commissioner. For the Netherlands, this is currently Wopke Hoekstra (CDA) for climate action, but his future depends on the new government’s support, as the CDA is now in opposition.
All nominated Commissioners will face hearings before the European Parliament. By mid-December, a new European Commission will be ready to address key issues for the coming years, such as defense, security, and strengthening the EU’s competitiveness.