Based on President Trump’s public statements about the EU-US trade deal announced on 27 July 2025, here’s how they align or potentially contradict the European Commission’s framing:
Points of Agreement
Both sides emphasize:
The 15% tariff ceiling: Trump confirmed that the U.S. will impose a flat 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, which is consistent with the EU’s statement.
Energy and investment commitments: Trump highlighted the EU’s agreement to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and invest $600 billion in the U.S., which matches the EU’s announcement.
Strategic product exemptions: Both sides noted that certain products like aircraft parts,chemicals, and pharmaceuticals will receive special treatment or exemptions.
Section 232 investigations: Trump acknowledged that pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will temporarily face 0% tariffspending national security reviews, aligning with the EU’s description.
Here’s where Trump’s tone or framing may differ from the EU’s:
Tariff Framing:
Trump described the deal as a “very powerful” and “biggest of all the deals”, emphasizing tough negotiations and portraying the 15% tariff as a win for the U.S.
EU framing presents the 15% as a ceiling that reduces existing tariffs (e.g., on cars from 25% + 2.5% MFN), suggesting relief rather than escalation.
EU Expectations:
Reports indicate that Europe had hoped for lower tariffs, around 10%, and some EU officials expressed relief mixed with concern over the final deal.
Trump’s tone suggests the EU market was “essentially closed” and now “opened up,” which may not reflect the EU’s view of its own openness.
Military Purchases:
Trump mentioned that the EU would be “purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment”, a claim not mentioned in the EU’s official statement.
Steel and Aluminum Tariffs:
Trump indicated that 50% tariffs remain for now, with a quota system to be negotiated. The EU emphasized cutting tariffs and protecting against global overcapacity, suggesting a more cooperative tone.
Moreover: the EU-US trade deal announced on 27 July 2025 is a political agreement and not legally binding until it is formally ratified through the EU’s internal procedures, which may require approval from all 27 member states.
What defines a strong NATO ally? Since the alliance’s founding in 1949, debates over burden-sharing have been constant. Donald Trump, both in his first and current term, has sharply criticized European members for underfunding their defense while relying on U.S. protection—and not without reason.
His message is resonating. Belgium’s defense minister recently vowed to end the country’s “national shame” of being NATO’s most notorious free rider. Even Iceland, which lacks a standing army, is exploring how to contribute more meaningfully.
Image: Pixabay
To assess NATO members’ contributions, consider the “three Cs”: cash, capabilities, and commitment.
Cash: More Members Are Meeting Targets—But Is It Enough?
Today, 22 of NATO’s 32 members meet the 2% of GDP defense spending target, a big jump from just seven a decade ago. Italy and Spain are on track to join them this year. But the bar is rising: at the upcoming summit in The Hague, NATO is expected to adopt a new target of 3.5% of GDP, plus 1.5% for supporting infrastructure.
Still, raw spending figures can be misleading. Some countries inflate their numbers by including loosely related expenses under “defense.”
Capabilities: What the Money Buys Matters More
NATO recommends that at least 20% of defense budgets go toward equipment—most members comply, and that threshold may soon rise to 33%. But quantity doesn’t equal quality. Greece, for example, spends heavily on gear, but much of it is aimed at deterring Turkey, not Russia.
The NATO Defense Planning Process aims to align national purchases with alliance needs. After years of counterterrorism focus, the threat from Russia is refocusing priorities. Allies are now being asked to build forces primarily for deterrence in Europe. New “capability targets” expected this month will guide what each country should provide—especially in areas where the U.S. may scale back, like intelligence, long-range strike, and logistics.
Commitment: Who Shows Up?
Operationally, even the most frugal allies are stepping up. Spain leads a multinational brigade in Slovakia; Italy commands one in Bulgaria. Portuguese jets patrol Baltic airspace. Smaller nations like Albania and Slovenia also contribute troops to NATO’s eastern flank.
But NATO wants more. In a major conflict, it aims to deploy 100,000 troops within 10 days and another 200,000 within 30. Without more European investment in recruitment and readiness, those goals may be out of reach—especially without U.S. troops.
A Smarter Division of Labor?
NATO is exploring a “multi-speed” model: larger militaries take on high-end combat roles, while smaller states focus on logistics, cyber, or niche capabilities. Luxembourg, for instance, supports satellite communications and surveillance; Iceland runs an air-defense system.
Getting underperformers like Spain and Italy to specialize more effectively may be key. Encouraging them to invest in maritime capabilities could be a strategic win.
Donald Trump committed an “unprecedented criminal attempt” to remain in power. That is the conclusion of Special Prosecutor Jack Smith in a long-anticipated report on the outgoing U.S. president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, which he lost. The report was released today.
AFP
Since Trump won the most recent presidential election, the charges against him have been dropped. The U.S. Department of Justice does not prosecute sitting presidents. The report concludes that there was sufficient evidence to convict Trump, but his upcoming presidency makes that impossible.
The Justice Department submitted the report to Congress early this morning. “The common thread in all of Trump’s criminal activities was deceit,” the report states. “Knowingly and willingly, he made false claims of election fraud. The evidence shows that Trump weaponized these lies to obstruct a federal government function that is fundamental to the U.S. democratic process.”
Although many details of Trump’s attempts to overturn the election were already well known, the document contains, for the first time, a detailed assessment from Smith regarding his investigation. It also includes Smith’s response to Trump and his allies’ claims that the investigation was politically motivated.
Smith argues that his actions against Trump were in defense of the rule of law. He also addressed ongoing criticism from the newly re-elected president. “Trump’s claim that my prosecutorial decisions were influenced or directed by the Biden administration or other political actors is, in one word, ridiculous,” Smith wrote in a letter to the Attorney General about the report.
Quiet Resignation
Smith also intended to indict Trump for illegally storing sensitive national security documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida after leaving the White House in 2021. However, the Justice Department has pledged not to release that part of the investigation publicly, as legal proceedings are still ongoing against two Trump associates charged in the case.
Over the weekend, it was announced that Jack Smith had resigned. His departure had been expected ever since Trump won the election in November. Jack Smith (55), who previously prosecuted war criminals at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, was appointed in 2022 to prosecute Trump.
Trump himself responded in his typical fashion to the report’s release. On Truth Social, he called Smith a “dumb prosecutor who failed to get his case heard before the election.” He did not mention that his own legal team had filed numerous procedures to delay the trial.
Japan and the United States will strengthen their military ties. The two countries announced this in a joint statement. With the cooperation, they say, they are addressing the threats from China and North Korea in the region. They call China’s role “the biggest security challenge”.
Image: APF
According to Japan and the US, China’s policy is aimed at turning international relations in its favor by, among other things, exerting great political, economic and military pressure. British Prime Minister Sunak also signed an agreement to strengthen military ties between Japan and the United Kingdom.
Tensions between China and Taiwan
In the region, there are particularly high tensions between China and Taiwan. The Chinese army regularly conducts exercises near the island state. The Chinese government sees Taiwan as a renegade province. The Taiwanese have a strong ally in the US.
Last August, top American politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, which was seen as a provocation by China. In Beijing’s eyes, any visit by a foreign administrator or politician is equivalent to recognition of Taiwan’s independence.
Earlier, US President Joe Biden announced that the US military would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
The military cooperation includes a new naval unit on the Japanese island of Okinawa, not far from Taiwan. The Americans already have a large base there and will expand the existing army. The site is seen as a strategic location in the region, from which it is possible to react quickly.
Additional troops are also stationed on other islands south of Japan. Both countries will also practice multiple times.
Japan strengthens its military
Last year, Japan announced to significantly strengthen its own defense. It will be the largest reinforcement since World War II. Japan feels the threat from North Korea, which regularly fires missiles, and sees that China has expanded its navy and air force in the vicinity of Japan. According to Japan, Chinese naval vessels regularly sail in Japanese territorial waters.
While Russia is gaining ground in eastern Ukraine, there was also positive military news last week. With the weapons received by the West, Ukraine has launched a number of successful attacks against the Russian army and is preparing a counter-offensive against southern cities like Kherson. Ukraine also launched its first attack on a Russian naval base in Crimea.
In addition, a new study by scientists at Yale showed that the sanctions are effective and have now paralyzed the Russian economy.
With the beginning of the transit of food from the Black Sea, the image may arise that Russia would be ready for an agreement. However, this is implausible. The country is already preparing for a long-term conflict and unfortunately Russia’s position vis-à-vis the West could improve significantly in the near future.
First, we must realize that Russia is expanding the conflict to more and more stages. In space, for example: Russia has indicated that it would stop collaborating on the International Space Station, which may endanger the entire project. This also applies to the maritime level: Putin this week approved a new maritime doctrine against American dominance of the world’s seas.
Not to mention the diplomatic scene, where Russia is very active and is trying to influence its image worldwide. In the former Soviet sphere, Putin has visited Tajikistan and Turkmenistan and has held summits with leaders in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Important consultations have been held with regional powers Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. In Uzbekistan, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met ministers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an Asian bloc led by China and Russia.
The same Lavrov also visited Africa, where he disseminated the Russian perspective on the war in Egypt, Uganda, Ethiopia and Congo. This ties in with anti-Western sentiment and with the economic concerns of many African leaders, as already demonstrated by Macky Sall, president of Senegal and currently chairman of the African Union.
In Africa, Russia has other instruments. In recent years, the Russian private army, the Wagner Group, has gained influence in countries such as Mali, the Central African Republic, Libya and more recently Burkina Faso. This could cause unrest on Europe’s borders.
Even more important than Russian diplomacy is that Western unity threatens to crumble. First, take the US. After the summer, the mid-term elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate will take place there and it is very likely that Biden’s position in Washington will weaken. Ukraine is currently not a major topic in the US. Foreign news in the US is about China and Saudi Arabia. However, the main topic on the news is inflation. Rising prices combined with a recession do not bode well for the incumbent government and its ability to conduct coherent foreign policy.
Consider Europe. Here we see a similar dynamic. The pain of higher prices is becoming more and more apparent and this is causing political tensions. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi was the first prominent victim of this when he resigned after clashing with the Five Star Movement over aid packages. After new elections, a right-wing coalition that favors a more positive relationship with Russia could come to power. Everywhere, including in rich countries such as the Netherlands, economic problems will put a lot of pressure on politicians in the coming months.
Tensions will also increase between European countries. The new Italian government will take office at a time of rising interest rates, which will bring renewed concerns about the debt burden of southern European countries. And also think of Eastern Europe. Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary, stated last week that the European sanctions policy is failing and that the EU should not align itself with Ukraine, but between Russia and Ukraine. Impending energy shortages will sharpen the dividing line between countries that are more and less dependent on Russian gas.
So it is quite possible that Western unity and support for Ukraine will come under great pressure in the coming months, let alone possible disruptions such as a new corona wave.
This does not mean that Russia is going to win the war or that the West should push for an agreement with Russia now. This is not feasible. But it does mean that we have to think now about what we will do with a weaker position. And that it is time to look more outwardly and launch our own EU diplomatic offensive.
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