There is celebration and relief among the Lebanese, as well as division among Israelis, following the implementation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. While it appears at first glance that both parties are adhering to the agreement, both Lebanese and Israelis express a “wait and see” attitude.
This sentiment is reinforced by the 2006 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, to which the current situation is often compared. Although weapons were also immediately laid down back then, tensions persisted, and there were repeated violations by both sides.
An international commission has been established to monitor this agreement. How effective that oversight will be remains uncertain. Israel reserves the right to intervene if Hezbollah breaches the terms. Things could easily escalate again, and there’s no guarantee we’ll get through the next 60 days without incidents.
Lebanese Army’s Key Role
Alongside countries like France and the United States, the Lebanese Army is expected to play a crucial role in maintaining the truce. Thousands of soldiers will be deployed in southern Lebanon to oversee the situation.
However, several experts criticize this plan, arguing that while it may look promising on paper, the Lebanese Army is relatively weak in practice. Despite suffering significant blows, Hezbollah is still believed to be much stronger, and the army’s capacity to counterbalance it is considered minimal.
Joy Among Lebanese
Still, both fighting parties have reasons to be satisfied with the agreement and a vested interest in its success. For Hezbollah, it is important to project that they have not been defeated, even though the organization has suffered significant losses.
Hezbollah commanders and leaders were killed, weapon depots destroyed—it’s clear Israel dealt significant blows. Israel likely couldn’t have entirely defeated Hezbollah, but had they continued fighting, the situation would have worsened considerably.
Eye on Trump
Israel has its own strategic considerations, particularly as public fatigue with the war grows. Israel is also looking toward Washington, where Donald Trump is set to assume power in two months. You could view this as an early Christmas present to him, a gesture to gain favor.
Israel will expect something in return—likely greater leeway to act in Gaza under Trump’s administration, including potentially expanding settlements there.
Mixed Reactions in Israel
Reactions to the ceasefire are divided in Israel. For tens of thousands of residents displaced from the border region, there is no immediate reason to return home. Israeli media express skepticism about whether Hezbollah will honor the agreement.
Others oppose the ceasefire outright, arguing that Israel missed an opportunity to decisively defeat Hezbollah while the group is weakened. Critics warn that this pause gives Hezbollah a chance to regroup and regain strength.
Bad News for Palestinians
Regardless of the perspective, the ceasefire is seen as bad news for Palestinians. IDF troops no longer required in Lebanon will now be available for deployment in Gaza.
This works in Israel’s favor, as they’re struggling to send enough soldiers to the front. In that sense, this is bad news for Hamas and the Palestinians.